Alot of chinas water problems now are due to them polluting there water supply instead of them actually lacking a water supply so better Desalination tech would likley prevent this.
Also another thing its just as likley china dams up the NGP limitting the water there to begin with. But if for whatever reason a war were to break out between the 2 its very likley to reach the hundred million/9 digit death toll.

But China already has almost all the Himalayan water, don't they?

It will be between 2024 to 2076 and your close to it

Commies always lose.

It's still possible, but there are several major hurdles to prevent this from happening? First we have to address why people are leaving religion. Increasingly in the west and in the US in particular people are just being raised without religion, it seems like the main three reasons people don't believe religion is because it doesn't make rational sense, it's homophobic, and sexist. I know some of you personally don't like this point but I'm going to make it again anyway. The new left (ethnic minority rights, women's economic and reproductive rights, LGBT rights, environmentalism) is on the field so I'll come Mount Rushmore of Western Civilization as with Socrates, Jesus Christ, and the Enlightenment. The reason I single the middle two are because it it goes against the abrahamic faiths. I think great evidence for my point is the whole abortion debate in the US right now especially with the Kansas referendum. 75% of gen z is pro-choice which is much higher than millennials when they were the same age as the oldest gen z. Also another thing is that women are now just as likely to be non-religious or even more than men especially at the youngest ages. This is extremely abnormal as it's usually men that are more irreligious. The consequences of this this shift as with women's shift to the left is a distrust in religious institutions. To add to that, most of the declining churches are populated by old women almost exclusively and the reality is men die earlier than women. The reality is quoting from the historian Tom Holland: "the 60s have been the greatest period of moral and ethical change since the 1520s (protestant reformation)". So a religious revival has to address all these issues while maintaining theological rigor. Moreover, WIAH said in the America's 21st century video that there is a decent likelihood of a theorcracy coming. That would further destroy Christianity has reducing level of religious belief and attendance.

“It came to me in a dream!”

Speaking more seriously though, I think that religious revivals are eternal, and inevitable, because they are true. Not perfect, but accurate enough that humans can’t resist them without going insane. There are supernatural forces in the universe. Be they one, or be they many, they are real. One can not ignore them, or contradict them for more than a few years, without loosing one’s mind.

America used to have this periods called "Great Awakenings" in which religiosity increases. Also Rudyard mentioned the fact that in the 1740s, 1840s and 1940s there were all religious revivals, where people became more religious than before and new curches emerged (In the 1740s you had methodism; in the 1840s Mormonism and Adventism, and the 1940 saw evangelicalism becoming more mainstream).

So, adding to the fact that religiosity had been down lately and people need of a new religious interpretation, the idea of a new "Great Awakening" happening around the 2040s becomes a very likely possibility.

I do sometimes wonder what would have happened if the US intelligence and military had prevented the USSR from developing nuclear weapons, or, at least, incinerated all of the USSR’s major strategic targets immediately after they developed their first nuke. Maybe they could have nuked one or two US or European ally cities in the aftermath, but as sad as that would be, it might have resulted in the U.S. being the world’s only nuclear state.

I’d say countries that aren’t a significant risk to others and countries that are at risk of being destroyed by neighbors if they let their guard down.

"Nuclear weapons take all the fun out of geopolitics."

This is an interesting idea, but I do wonder if your typical citizen of China would really be willing to part with their cherished ethnic Han self-perception. I once suggested to a Chinese person to whom I was close, who was actually quite liberal and unconcerned about race, that her skin colour and facial features could indicate a Manchu or other non-Han ethnic origin, at least partially, and she rejected the idea with immediacy and assertiveness.

I believe it will be ethnonationist (even more than now as they have do affirmative action for ethnic minorities), socially conservative and anti-new left. They have a derogatory term for them: baizo "white left" (something that's in my article. I don't know if it will be capitalist or anti-capitalist, but I lean toward being somewhat more capitalist. I think they'll like the gains of capitalism, but hate the social consequences of consumerism.

Would be tough to build a new ideology off a “anti” or negative because you would need the former to exist to support your system basically just making it that system anyway. Grammar, words, I think I get the point across.

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This is brilliant. That Prime symbol makes sense.

In a strange way, though, Martian colony civilization could still adopt Spengler’s Judeo-Christian-Islamic prime symbol of “the closed dome” (you know, the hermetically sealed biosphere), and the ecological origin of the “desert cave” (as Mars is the harshest of deserts, and lava tubes are cave-like).

In some ways, a successful colony on Mars would require that kind of strict, Abrahamic, Patriarchy… with a shared commitment to the same moral codes and black&white view of reality, tempered by paternal-like love and forgiveness. A Mars colonist couldn’t just say “screw you guys, I’m leaving” and just go wander away from Massachusetts to Rhode Island, like a troublesome/outcast American colonist could have done.

I would think that the Mars colonists would have to be almost Puritanical in culture, but with a much stronger church structure. Maybe some of the more isolated old Spanish Catholic Missions in the New Mexico desert would be a template?

Unless they’re all on behavior-modifying drugs, or under constant surveillance and constant threat of personal harm carried out against them by (ideally) impartial sentinel robots (you know…the cameras/microphones/body sensors/ etc) capture something that onboard AI determines to be a crime or serious transgression, then disciplines/banishes the offender)….

And in that case, the anxiety/paranoia part you mentioned would come into play, so…I guess there are many ways it could go! Very interesting post my dude, well done!

damn dusters

I'd love to hear more about your takes on other topics